The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recently released its summer assessment of electric reliability, indicating that Ohio is at low risk for demand exceeding supply. This is a shift from NERC’s winter assessment of Ohio, which falls within the 13-state PJM grid. The Midwest was at risk of power loss this past winter, but due to mild weather conditions, outages were successfully avoided.
Contrarily, other regions of the country are predicted to face potential rolling outages or blackouts during the hottest days of this summer. According to the NERC 2024 Summer Reliability Assessment, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, the upper midsection of the United States and New England area are all at an elevated risk of rolling outages as temperatures rise in areas where baseload power generation has been reduced due to EPA regulations.
Electricity consumers can contribute to avoiding rolling outages on the hottest days this summer by limiting energy consumption in several ways: lowering their thermostat by a few degrees or turning off the A/C; using washing machines and dishwashers in the evening; closing blinds and curtains during peak heat hours; using ceiling fans instead of A/C; and unplugging appliances when not in use.
The NERC report provided a summary for Ohio and states within the PJM region of the grid: PJM anticipates a low risk of resources falling below required operating reserves. PJM forecasts a 29% IRM, significantly above the target of 17.7%. The RRS analyzed various load scenarios (low, regular, and extreme) as well as multiple scenarios for system-wide unavailable capacity due to forced outages, maintenance outages, and ambient derations. Given the low penetration of variable energy resources in PJM relative to PJM’s peak load, the hour with most loss of load risk remains during peak forecasted demand.
