The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has released its 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, which examines the challenges facing the electric grid in the United States as demand increases and energy resources change. The report covers the period from December through February.
PJM Interconnection, which manages the grid for Ohio and 12 other states including the District of Columbia, anticipates a strong reliability position for this winter. According to NERC’s assessment, PJM expects installed reserves at 35%, nearly double the industry’s reliability standard target of 17.7%. This suggests there is minimal risk of capacity shortfalls during the winter months.
Last winter, PJM experienced an all-time high in winter electricity demand. However, preparations by generators and good transmission performance helped maintain sufficient reserves throughout that period. The report notes that reserves are slightly lower than last year due to increased load and retirement of dispatchable generation that has not been replaced with equivalent new resources. Non-solar, flexible resources continue to play a critical role in maintaining reliability.
Buckeye Power, which supplies power for Ohio’s electric cooperatives, has completed winter preparedness procedures at Cardinal Plant and its two natural gas peaking plants. Leaders from Buckeye Power have stated that these plants are ready if Ohio experiences extreme cold events this winter when demand could be highest. Forecasts predict a colder and wetter winter this season.
Nationally, electricity demand is rising at its fastest rate in years, driven by growth in data centers and electrification efforts. Aggregate peak demand across NERC regions has increased by 20 gigawatts (2.5%) since last winter, with some areas expecting up to 10% year-over-year growth. While total energy resources have grown by 9.4 gigawatts, there is a shift toward battery storage and away from traditional thermal generation sources. This transition highlights the need for reliable fuel supplies for remaining thermal units.
The report also addresses vulnerabilities related to natural gas supply during severe weather events such as storms Uri and Elliott, which caused disruptions across multiple regions in past winters. Operators are enhancing their planning efforts to address these risks.
For Ohio and other states within PJM’s territory, the outlook remains positive with ample reserves and strong planning expected to keep electricity service reliable through the coming winter. However, continued attention will be necessary as demand grows and resource portfolios evolve.
